Resilience Talk

Welcome to Resilience Talk hosted by
Paul Spencer of Second Nature Solutions.

Let's dive in.

Brandon Giella: Hello and
welcome back to another episode

of the Resilient Talk podcast.

We have not had an
episode in quite a while.

We've taken a, taken a little bit of
a break, but I am so glad that we're

back, Paul, because your work in
building resilient businesses arguably

has never been more important than
right now because we are experiencing.

What you're calling an age of transition.

We are going from one era to another,
and in between those two eras is a lot

of uncertainty and I think something
that is very pointed, a particular within

that universal is the tariff situation
where it's causing a lot of uncertainty.

But as you, you had mentioned, uh, when
we were talking, uh, before recording

the episode that um, the tariff situation
is a strategy against a backdrop of

these macro forces that are affecting.

Businesses, economies,
immigration, geopolitical tensions.

There's so much even, uh, you
know, technological changes.

The way that companies are
adopting ai, the way that they're

building their supply chains.

There's just so much going on
because of these giant macro

forces that we're gonna get into.

And so you have written an article about
this age of transition to help businesses.

Become more resilient to
handle these uncertainties.

And so I want to hear from you what
started this article, what, what

gave rise to you sitting down pen and
paper and thinking about these things.

Um, and then we'll get into some of
the things that you, you mentioned in

this that, especially these two big
shifts that are occurring right now.

So what, what started
you talking about this?

Paul Spencer: Yeah.

Um, well I saw a clip um, RFK Junior, I
think it was in a cabinet meeting, and

he was talking about the SNAP program.

then he used the, the phrase, the
soda industry is knocking on my door.

and uh, the gist of it is, is that
he wants to change the SNAP program

to be more nutritious, right?

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: of, of
food for, for students.

Um, and what I gathered through
from the clip is that the, the soda

industry is making an argument that,
well, nutrition's not part of it,

it's just part of a food program.

And, and then he made the quip
that, well, it's called the Student

Nutrition Assistance Program.

and kinda made me chuck a little
bit because you can, you can

see in the back room that, uh.

the soda industry is saying,
geez, we got this huge account,

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: It's seamless.

There's hardly any friction here.

It just renews over and
over and over again.

It's through the entire United States.

Um, it's just good money, right?

And now we're getting something
that's happening jeopardizing

this, this big account.

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: so this happens a lot.

our businesses where, uh, something
changes or something shifts either

within our market or maybe even the
macro side of things, um, are shifting.

And now some of our well-known primary
customers are coming back to us and, and

they're saying, Hey, can we cut costs?

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: bit more, Hey,
can we, uh, can we pause?

Right?

Can we do some of those things?

And you're saying, geez,
these are, these are.

Our top five customers,
um, if we lose them, right?

You, you kind of hit the panic button and
you say, if we lose them, just like the

soda industry, if we lose this account.

What's that gonna do for us?

Right.

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: and so what comes to mind
just in that example is, uh, we are

in this, this age of transition and
this one's pretty specific and it's

more of a, a government shift rather
than maybe a, a macro shift where the

government at a stroke of a pen can

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: and say, we're
gonna do this and not do that.

And everybody kind of whipsaw with that.

Um, and that's the risk of having.

Government accounts.

Right.

Brandon Giella: Yep.

Paul Spencer: but we also have
this reality where things are in

transition like you described.

With the tariffs and with
trade and with everything else.

Um, and so when we know that we
have our top five meaning customers,

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: um, hopefully we
have a diverse client list, right?

We don't have one customer or
two, we have at least five or,

Brandon Giella: Hopefully yes.

Paul Spencer: but we, we likely
have every, the audiences

listening to this are mature.

Companies have been around
for 30, 50 years, right?

So you have a good client base.

Um, and part of that risk management
is making sure that you have a

diversified client base, right?

But we also know that our
top five customers provide a

good chunk of our, our annual

Brandon Giella: Yep.

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: maybe even more than that.

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: Um, which is okay.

Um.

That provides an opportunity, sometimes
it provides some vulnerability we just

need to be able to ask ourselves, again
using this, this RFK junior example

that if something changes within our
top five, and let's just say we lose

one of our top five, they're just
gone For whatever reason, A resilient

business tends to say, not ideal.

You know, I, I, I don't, I
wouldn't wish that to happen.

I don't want it to happen.

Um, and it's gonna push up against
different aspects of our business, right?

but in the end, it's not the
end of our end of the world

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: Um, and we'll be able to
adjust and we'll likely just be able to

recoup everything at, at a point in time.

And the reason why we're able to say that
is not because we put our head in the

sand and we're just ignoring the problem.

uh, we're just.

Being naive about it, it's because
we have a resilient business.

And a resilient business
means that I have confidence.

It's been demonstrated that
I have a system on the sales

side, that it's an engine,

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Hmm.

Paul Spencer: And I have confidence that
yeah, we lose, we lose a big account,

but that engine is still running

Brandon Giella: and I know

Paul Spencer: that it can produce,

That is a sign of resiliency regardless of
what's what's happening around us, right?

And then I also know that within
my delivery side, my delivery

engine is also running very well.

And when something happens, with
a customer or some kind of other

imposed input, I know that they're
also capable of adjusting and, uh,

switching things out and pivoting,
and then we'll, we'll be fine.

Right?

Again, it's not gonna be easy,
it's not gonna be painless.

Um, but we can get through it.

Right, as opposed to somebody who is
in a, what I would call a traditional

business who's not really thinking
about these things and just kind of goes

about their business, this would absorb.

All of the oxygen

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: room for their entire
business, for the next, I don't

know, year and a half, right?

And it may, may throw them
so far off course that it may

jeopardize the business itself,

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: can't think, they can't
sleep, they can't do anything else.

But, but try to consider why
did we lose that account?

How do we get that account back?

Right?

All those things.

And they, they can't, um,
recover, uh, because they

don't have resilience systems.

Brandon Giella: You're saying?

Yeah, that's a sys, that's a
business without a system is one

that is gonna be, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Paul Spencer: that's more ad hoc.

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: uh, and every business
has a process or a system, but,

uh, a lot of times it's invisible.

and it's not transparent,

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: right?

And nobody can look at it
because it's in Paul's head.

and when it comes down to it, um.

Paul's head cannot run the business when,

Brandon Giella: right.

Paul Spencer: when things are shifting.

Right.

When you're

Brandon Giella: That's right.

Paul Spencer: of transition.

Brandon Giella: That's
right, that's right.

You used a phrase, you
called, uh, imposed input.

Can you.

Define that or, or describe that and then
talk about these two major imposed inputs

that you see businesses facing now, but
especially in the next five years or so.

Paul Spencer: Yeah, sure.

So imposed inputs, uh, is something
that I learned from, from, uh, from

Deming and system of profound knowledge.

So when we're, when we're mapping
out or processes and we're

being aware of those, um, I.

You have inputs into your system, right?

So if we're building furniture, right,
you have lumber, you have hardware,

like the screws and the, the, the
metal pieces that are coming in, right?

The, the knobs, right?

Those are all inputs.

And you get to choose those.

You get to choose what
type of wood, right?

Which type of material.

Um, an imposed input is something
that you don't have any, you,

you can't opt out of, right?

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: non-negotiable, right?

Um, and so that could be things like.

economy.

You might be in a recession, might
have the, the ash bore bug, right?

Who goes through and eats
up all the ash trees and now

Brandon Giella: Yes.

Yes, yes.

Paul Spencer: ash trees anymore.

Right?

Or the cost of ash trees
are through the roof and now

Brandon Giella: Yep.

Paul Spencer: use different wood, even
though that's not our preferred wood

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: there's nothing
you can do about that.

Brandon Giella: Yep.

Yep.

Paul Spencer: so an
imposed input is, is just.

We live in that always.

And it's important to, to map that out.

Sometimes, um, some business leaders
think it's, it's a little too, um,

much into the weeds to think about what
those are and actually write them down.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: Um, but when we have
core processes, systems in our

business, it is helpful to understand
the difference between what's chosen.

Meaning what are the things that
we have control over and what

are the ones that are imposed?

And when we have a clear understanding
of what's imposed, I mean, you, Brandon,

you and I may, may say that's imposed.

And then as we talk about it, we
agree that hmm, we actually have

more control of that than we thought.

And And we move it up

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: into a chosen.

And what that does is that changes
how our process actually works.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: Right.

And so if we wanna do process
improvement or we wanna be resilient

and we can't change, uh, the ash tree

uh, then we may update or change our
processes to be able to handle different

types of wood materials, right?

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: that is, that
is a resilient business.

It's really difficult to be able to handle
that if you don't have eyes on site,

An awareness on what
your imposed inputs are.

Brandon Giella: Interesting.

Okay.

Okay.

So things you can control and things you
can't control and the things you can't

control are inputs that are imposed.

You have to deal with them as they are.

They are.

This is the facts of the case.

You can't get out of it.

That's what it is.

Okay.

Paul Spencer: some imposed inputs, uh,
be over time moved to, to, to chosen.

Brandon Giella: Okay.

I that's helpful.

Okay.

I like that.

Paul Spencer: So, um,
uh, let's take weather.

Right.

Let's say we're a home builder,

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: home builder, and uh,
and we're, uh, let's say in Florida

and it rains a lot and it's hard to
build quality houses the way we like

to build them because it rains a lot.

Well, uh, we can't change the
weather, but maybe we say we're

not gonna do business in Florida,
we're gonna do it in, uh, Phoenix,

Brandon Giella: Which is
happening, by the way.

Insurers are saying that, they're
like, Hey, we, we're not gonna

insure your property in, in
Florida or California, or whatever.

Yeah.

Mm-hmm.

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: what you're doing is
you're, you're, you are adjusting,

you're, instead of just dealing with it,

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: you're adjusting it
and making it a, a chosen input,

Brandon Giella: I like that.

Paul Spencer: your business model because
of some of the input imposed inputs,

which essentially are constraints right

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Paul Spencer: around your business.

Another, another example
is the government.

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: may have a regulation,
may have some way of doing something,

and then you may lobby your congress
person right about this as a small

business and they may help you change
a law or get a law passed, which helps

or get rid of a regulation or add a
regulation which helps the business

environment and move an imposed input up

Brandon Giella: Hmm

Paul Spencer: chosen.

So those are

Brandon Giella: hmm.

That's really helpful.

Okay, but you've got two big ones that
you referenced in the article and, and

are kind of guiding your thinking now in
this next era that we're entering into.

So talk to me about these, these two
I, I don't wanna give, give 'em away.

So tell me what the two major, um,
shifts or, or imposed inputs in this

coming era that we're facing now.

Paul Spencer: Yeah.

So we're in this, uh, so if you
think about, uh, if everybody's heard

of Neil Howell and, uh, the fourth
turning, recommend you read that book.

It's a.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: It's a thick book.

I think it's very interesting.

So it's a quick read for me, uh, but
uh, maybe you could listen to it twice.

Speed on audio if you're

Brandon Giella: Okay.

Yeah, I'll write down the audible one.

Paul Spencer: Uh, anyway, so
he's got, uh, it's a very.

I think it's super interesting to think
about the generations, uh, and the

four generations and how they turn.

Um, and so we're in that fourth
generation, which in, in his model,

which I think is actually proving
itself out, even today we're

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: is that when you, when
you experience that fourth generation,

which is four generations living when
they're all living together, right?

They're all alive at the same time,
um, and coming of age at the same time.

Is that on that fourth one is when
you have more of a environment,

Brandon Giella: Hmm, Hmm.

Paul Spencer: more of a crisis

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: all the things that
were built prior generations as

far as, uh, maybe the government.

Or the institutions, or maybe even
could be even values, religious values

or non-religious values or whatever
those things are that that grew.

This society or this civilization are
no longer relevant or no longer really

working either because they are not
relevant or because they become so stale

and so abused that they no longer work.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: And so people, uh, it
becomes a very chaotic environment.

And that's, that's his theory.

That's, that's where we are today.

And so, so environment that we're
in is we have a demographic shift.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: we have the
boomer generation that's

coming out of age, right?

and so the next biggest generation
is the millennial generation.

And so what's happening is, Throughout
the entire world that boomer

generation is leaving the earth, right,

Brandon Giella: It's a,
it's a great way to put it.

Yes, correct.

Paul Spencer: what, what we're, what we're
experiencing is, uh, a loss in population

in the, uh, in the developed world,

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: right?

And so with that, that means
that we are going to have issues.

Uh, it's gonna be harder to produce.

Right.

it's gonna be harder to have,
uh, certain living standards

if you're not able to produce.

and there are some countries that
are falling off the cliff, right?

You can just look these things up.

But some countries, Europe, China, right?

They're off the cliff.

So meaning, uh, they will lose a lot of
population, a lot of productivity power

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: the coming
however many years, right?

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: Um, the US is just barely.

Under reproducing.

Um, but uh, we also have a immigration,
uh, lever that we can pull, right?

Um, people want to come here.

Um, and so anyway, that's changing
the world and it's changing how

things are gonna, things are gonna go

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: The, uh, the second
one is that the global trade, um.

Pattern that we've had is also
slowly, or maybe from your perspective

today, is quickly disintegrating

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: shifting and it's
becoming more of a regional economy,

more of a, have you and me, Brandon,
let's you and I trade and make a

deal and using Trump's words, right.

Make a deal and then let's you and I make
a deal and then we become friends and,

and the whole regional type economy is.

Seems to be where we're going.

Right.

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: and that is,
um, it's a mix of things.

It's a mix of lots of things.

Um, mostly around the difference
between us and China as part of

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: Right.

That be, um, but also because
the US has been, um, uh.

Funding the Navy, the world's Navy,
and keeping open channels, trade

channels, shipping channels open.

We've had a really long piece time

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: it's been easy to
ship things from across the world,

across lots of different countries.

Make something, uh, make one piece
in Asia, another piece in Africa,

and another piece in Europe,
and then assemble it in Mexico.

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: the only reason
that's possible is because

the shipping lanes are open.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: And we're seeing
that with the Houthis, right?

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: disrupting, um, shipping
channels and trade channels, right?

And so now they're having to
go around Africa instead of

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: Which increased costs.

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: you start to
multiply that out in different

areas and it's very fragile.

Brandon Giella: It feels that way.

Yeah.

Paul Spencer: the supply chain, the global
supply chain can unravel fairly quickly,

Brandon Giella: Yeah,

Paul Spencer: If you get more
of disruptions in the regions.

Brandon Giella: yeah.

Paul Spencer: Um, so anyway,
there's lots of different things

like that, that are occurring.

And the other one too is
the US uh, has a debt issue.

And

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: so it's, uh, the
idea of subsidizing the world's.

Military, right, the navy and keeping
everything going and funding wars and

keeping the peace is, uh, running out
of, it's running outta runway 'cause it

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: anymore.

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: so just by cutting
that in half or maybe even a quarter,

jeopardizes different trade routes,

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: naval trade routes, o

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Hmm.

Paul Spencer: Um, and then that's
why we're, that's why we're

going into more of a regional.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Yeah.

Paul Spencer: anyway, those are
things that are imposed inputs.

Uh, none of us are going to change that.

those things are occurring.

And then so again, we have
to ask ourselves, how does

that affect us, if at all?

Some of us are more insulated
to that than others.

Right.

Um.

And, uh, there's no use on getting
stuck into the, uh, nitty gritty of

daily kinda media and whatever's going
on with the White House and the, the

trades are on, trades are off, and
the stocks are down, stocks are up.

None of it is really relevant,
um, for the macro side of it.

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Yeah.

Paul Spencer: the macro side, these
things are moving and it doesn't

matter who's president or what's going
on, these things are going to occur.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: Um, it's just a matter
of are they gonna occur more slowly?

Like we have an opportunity
to kinda with it, right?

Just like what we would say
with my customers, right?

Let's play with that.

Let's

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: with that theory,
run A-P-D-S-A and see what happens.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: so we have an
opportunity to do that, um, as

opposed to reaching a critical mass.

say, sometime less than 10 years,
6, 7, 8 years, um, where it has

to be more draconian changes.

Brandon Giella: hmm.

Paul Spencer: we may get
there anyway, but who knows?

Um, that part, I don't, I'm not really
concerned about that as part of this talk.

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Yeah.

Paul Spencer: aware that these things
are happening, their imposed inputs.

There's nothing we can do about 'em.

We can be educated about 'em and wear
about 'em, but in the end, the weather,

Brandon Giella: Hmm

Paul Spencer: And so we, we run
business in Florida, so what, how do

our processes, how do our businesses
work knowing that it's going to rain?

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

So you just put out a
lot of ideas out there.

So I wanna recap really quickly.

And, and see if I'm, I'm summarizing
these accurately because by the

way, you know, when we talk about
macro, uh, topics, especially like

macroeconomics and things and, and
trying to forecast the future, nobody

knows what the future is gonna hold.

But there are frameworks and there
are big, um, tectonic plates that

are moving and you can see them
and there are likely implications.

We just don't know exactly
how they'll play out.

But I, but I like the framework
that you're putting together

that's very helpful to understand.

Paul Spencer: that, Brandon, we got,
uh, so one of the things that we've

talked about before, um, with some
of the videos is optimal, right?

So.

we look at the way to get to optimal,
it's a series of feedback loops,

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

small feedback

Paul Spencer: loops, right?

And so even in the best of times
when it's sunny out and we're, we're,

we're doing our business, we al we're
always striving to get to optimal.

And the only way to get to
optimal is short feedback loops.

And we cannot predict what
optimal is ever until we get there

and we say, yeah, good enough.

Um, but you, you, you have
to have the feedback loops.

Brandon Giella: Until the next
feedback loop that tells you it's

not optimal and you gotta fix it.

Right.

Paul Spencer: You're never gonna stop.

Because everything around
us is always shifting.

Brandon Giella: Right, right, right.

It's, yeah.

Nothing, nothing a static.

So you've got this, you've got
these series of, of, um, you know,

generational shifts that occur.

If I had to just pick a a point in
history, you know, printing press came out

that four generations later
you had the reformation pickup.

Four generations later you had the
um, you know, colonial expansion

and the age of exploration.

Four generations later,
you had the enlightenment.

Four generations after that, you
had the industrial Revolution.

Four generations after
that, you had World War

ii, and here we are
four generations later.

With COVID and a lot of, you know,
global tensions and, and even,

uh, local, you know, national
tensions and things like that.

Um,

so going through this period,

Paul Spencer: there is
the, is uh, the Civil War.

Brandon Giella: yeah.

Right.

Paul Spencer: and then Civil War.

Brandon Giella: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Right, right.

Paul Spencer: is very fascinating to me.

'cause, uh, the fourth turning
book, the Neil Howe book, again,

is just a theory he lays it out.

But, um, unless you're in that kind
of crisis period, which according

to his theory, we are in that

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: and you're actually living
it, it's really hard to be able to say.

that's true or not,

Brandon Giella: Hmm,

Hmm.

Hmm.

Paul Spencer: they line up and,
and it's history, um, but when it's

actually, when you're observing it in
real time, it's very, I don't know.

To me it's very fascinating.

Brandon Giella: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

'cause four generations before the
printing press was the black plague in

the fall of Constantinople, and then
four generations before that was the

ending of the medieval, you know, period.

And moving into a new era.

I mean now, now of course this
is just in the West, you know,

and I'm sure every region

just.

Just has, you know, they, they
have their four turnings as well.

But I love the idea that, that there
are these kind of moments in history

that you can track and build a story out
of that does make seem to make sense.

So given all of that, the era that we're
in now is you have these two big shifts

of, um, demographic shifts that a lot
of the, uh, of their, um, replacement

rate or population growth rate is not
quite keeping up, um, with the, the.

Uh, yeah, with the replacement rate,
with death, death to birth ratio.

And then you've also got this, what,
what was a global economy, global trade

and offshoring and NAFTA and all these,
you know, kind of things like this

Paul Spencer: integrated.

Brandon Giella: now.

Paul Spencer: Highly
integrated meaning factories.

Were just building one tiny chip.

Brandon Giella: Right.

Paul Spencer: Then other factories are
just building the, the casing, right?

Other factories are building the wifi
and they're going all, all those raw

materials are going all over the world
to be able, all different places,

to build those different components.

They're all being shipped into
one place to be assembled.

Brandon Giella: Yep.

Paul Spencer: it's fascinating
the way that, I mean, we've been

Brandon Giella: Okay.

Paul Spencer: that,

Brandon Giella: Yep.

Paul Spencer: and it's very unique because
we've never experienced that in the world.

Right.

We've never had enough
peace to be able to, right.

You might say maybe the, the,
what's the, the silk, uh, road,

Brandon Giella: The Silk Road.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Paul Spencer: Like those kinds of things,

Brandon Giella: W

Paul Spencer: yeah, it's pretty

Brandon Giella: well, the, the
height of that was, you know, Milton

Friedman in the eighties and nineties.

With that, this kind of free trade
and, and a lot of, uh, which I'm

a fan of, of Friedman, I think he
had a lot of great things to say.

Um, but then four generations
before that you had Henry Ford

where everything was a, you know,
complete, uh, integrated supply chain.

He built, you know, a giant
Red River factory in, in

Michigan to, to do all that.

So, yeah, it's, it's, it's funny
how those things kind of turn out.

Paul Spencer: my theory, my theory,
and this is again, uh, the reason

why we even started this podcast
and the whole newsletter, I.

that in 23 was around these things.

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Yeah,

Paul Spencer: but my theory is that things
are gonna become more and more localized.

Right.

Just like what you said with Henry Ford.

We're

Brandon Giella: yeah.

Paul Spencer: gonna realize that,
the uncertainty is too great.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: from a cost perspective
or maybe even from a risk perspective.

And so we're gonna start to, we're
gonna start to condense, right?

Which is that that imposed input

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: to regional
and things will get closer.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: we'll, the sourcing of
materials how we build things and where

we buy things will be become closer.

We'll see if that plays out, but that's,
that's the way things are moving.

Brandon Giella: So if this theory is
true, which there's a lot of evidence to

say that it is, what do we do about it?

You know, I mean, where
do we go from here?

And I, we're running out
time, I feel like, but,

but there's a but, but you've
got, in this article, you've

got some steps that we can take.

So, so I want to, yeah, I wanna hear
your thoughts on, on where we can go.

Paul Spencer: to be clear, we're
not gonna do anything about it.

It,

Brandon Giella: Oh yeah.

Fair.

Right?

Yes.

Right.

Paul Spencer: is coming
and that's just the way the

Brandon Giella: Yes, yes, yes.

But I, but, but you can take an active
approach to that tidal wave that's coming.

You can get a, a, an
umbrella of, of some, yeah.

Paul Spencer: and, and I think this is
also important too, just to keep in mind,

is this is also from Neil Howe's book,
um, which he, he kind of just points out

that, you know, most people are thinking
about everything that we're talking

about from the lens of political sides.

Brandon Giella: Yes.

Right.

Paul Spencer: Whether is blue, right?

Right.

Are the Democrats right, or
are the Republicans right?

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: is Biden right?

Or is is Trump?

Right?

Right.

And and what he says is,
that's the, that's the wrong

question The, the, the most important
question that he talks about is, are we

prepared as Americans, right, to deal
with, and he use this word, the trauma.

Right.

To be able to go through, uh,
an era that will collapse.

He

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: This 80 year
generational pattern that will

collapse and another one will emerge.

Kind of to your

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: is we don't know even
know what that's going to be, but

the time that crisis, at least using
his words right, that crisis period

is traumatic and it collapses.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: So I think that is, that
is something to be aware of that, um, of

thinking about how could I change this?

Or maybe who do I vote for?

I mean, you can still do those things,
but these things are regardless.

This thing is going to happen.

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: So how do we
build a resilient business?

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: And all of that is
just based on risk management.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: And thinking about, um,
how do you, uh, how do you analyze.

Your customers, which ones are at risk?

Which ones aren't?

Which ones should we double down on?

Which areas of the industry
should we go after next?

Um, because we feel
we're predicting, right?

We have a theory that they are
more secure or less risk given all

the inputs that we have, right?

So the input being that rain.

Where can we go that we can, we can
have, we can build more, we can do

the things that we wanna do and not

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: can we go, where
we don't have the, uh, the,

the trade issues or where

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: that the demographics
aren't as, as, um, risky, right?

Or as impactful.

Um, and maybe there's not
anything you can do about that.

So you just do better,
better, for worse, right?

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: of things.

So you're thinking about risk
management, um, you're wanting to

kind of play those scenarios out.

And most people that I work with know
that I like to do the rehearsals,

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: So we rehearse those
scenarios and we say, all right,

we get, uh, different departments
in the room and we say, all right,

customer X is no longer with us.

Right?

do we do?

Brandon Giella: Hmm,

Paul Spencer: it and we play it out, and

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: just kind
of mock it up, right?

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: And what that does is
that gives us a se that's a short

feedback loop that we can do in a
half day or a two hour or one hour.

And what it does is it gives us some
learnings about gaps in our processes,

gaps in our understanding, and maybe
some, assumptions that we make about

our own business that are incorrect.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Okay.

Paul Spencer: those do is that
gives us a, an opportunity

to say, oh, maybe we should.

that up.

Brandon Giella: Mm-hmm.

Paul Spencer: improve that system.

Maybe we should, uh, think a little
differently about our customer base.

Maybe we should go talk to our customers
because we're assuming this, but we're

actually not sure that that's correct.

Let's go ask them.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Hmm.

Paul Spencer: which is
all okay to do, right?

And then as we go through
that, we're thinking about,

our systems, our processes.

iterate, right?

We run PDSAs and we're doing
this always, all the time anyway.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: how our business should run.

Uh, this is taking it at a, at a
more strategic level and it's saying

let's run a risk management process,
which is just what I just described.

And we're constantly thinking
about where are risks.

We prioritize those risks, and
then we, then we run scenarios.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Okay.

Okay.

Uh, I have so much more to say.

Okay.

Um, so the way that you phrase
this is vulnerability landscape.

Future scenarios, mapping those out,
designing resilience systems around that

testing, uh, through small
experience, uh, uh, experiments,

PDSA loops, things like that.

And then finding that
balance to achieve optimal.

So those are the kind of steps that
you take to see these inputs come in

this tidal wave that's coming at you.

Paul Spencer: Exactly.

And then as an owner, or I mean
even as an executive leader, you

can put a team together, which
doesn't have to be executives, it

can be anybody in your organization

Brandon Giella: Hmm

Paul Spencer: has different perspectives,
um, different, um, seniority, meaning, uh,

somebody who's new to the company versus
somebody who's been there for 30 years.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: And you, you put a
team of three or four together, you.

Have 'em listen to this podcast and
you say, figure some things out,

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Yeah, yeah.

Yeah.

Paul Spencer: uh, let's get back next
week and, um, run some scenarios,

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Yep.

Yep.

Cool.

Yeah,

Paul Spencer: is the, this here, this
is, I think this is, um, um, the main

thing of all this and thinking about
the soda industry and losing their

snap account and all of that, um, is
just insight into us that, uh, we don't

have to panic there are no guarantees,

Brandon Giella: sure.

Sure.

Paul Spencer: guarantees, but
if we are methodical and we are,

um, mature in how we run our
business, um, we can handle a lot,

Brandon Giella: Yeah,

yeah,

Paul Spencer: of, um, inputs
and a lot of transition,

Brandon Giella: yeah.

Paul Spencer: and we'll come
out the other side stronger.

Brandon Giella: If I could summarize it
in one word, it would be, uh, systematic,

you know, think systemically about your
business and the world that you're in.

And that alone will start to make
your business more resilient to

face these, these challenges.

Yeah.

Paul Spencer: and it to I'll
translate that was, if I'm

systematic in my thinking, that
means that I've developed a process

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: runs every quarter
where I have the four people my risk

management team, and they have a clear.

transparent risk management process
that we've developed together and

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Hmm,

Paul Spencer: That is systematic.

That's systematic thinking.

Brandon Giella: Hmm hmm.

Okay.

Paul Spencer: And it's, and I have
confidence as the owner that, uh, when,

when something like this is happening
and I'm getting this, uh, tariff update.

I know that I have a process
that's running that's

thinking about these things.

And if I have a question, I go ask the
team or I may even be on the team, right?

And I can go say, have
you thought about this?

And they say, yeah, we thought about that

Brandon Giella: Yeah.

Paul Spencer: is the, this
is what we arrived to,

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: No we haven't.

We'll put that in our process

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: run it next meeting.

Brandon Giella: Hmm.

Paul Spencer: I'm like, good thanks.

Right?

And that's calm, peace of mind

Brandon Giella: Calm.

Paul Spencer: running the business.

Brandon Giella: Calm.

Can you imagine running a calm business?

That sounds wonderful.

Paul Spencer: owners hear the
noise and then they tamper.

Right?

Brandon Giella: Hmm,

Paul Spencer: then they
say, go work on this.

Brandon Giella: hmm

Paul Spencer: but there's
no process in place.

And now

Brandon Giella: hmm.

Paul Spencer: scrambling, they're
doing all kinds of stuff, and it

doesn't, that doesn't mean anything.

That doesn't have a lasting effect.

Brandon Giella: That resonates.

Paul Spencer: That's a
traditional business, by the way.

Brandon Giella: That is very
helpful to think about the

systematic processes, but I, I hope.

That listeners were taking notes
because there was a lot of big, um,

ideas, but also getting more concrete
into the systematic processes.

Um, but what I wanna do is I wanna,
I wanna try to recap this article in

a newsletter, you know, and we can
send that out, um, to the community.

So if you're listening to this, please
go to Second Nature, do Solutions

and sign up for our newsletter.

And you'll receive a seven day, uh,
kind of onboarding experience working

through the main, uh, foundational
principles of second Nature.

Um, and as part of that, you'll
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as the, the show comes out.

And so I, I would like to put this article
that you wrote, you know, partially

in that newsletter for the community.

So please go sign up as
always, like, and subscribe.

And, uh, Paul, we will see you next time.

Thank you so much for your
insight and wisdom as always.

Paul Spencer: Yeah, so much fun.

Brandon Giella: I see you.

Paul Spencer: Bye.